A Lifeless Universe: Part Two

You know and I know that at this point in time, our Universe is inhabited. Even if nowhere else in the cosmos, Planet Earth is host to terrestrial life. However, the Universe didn’t start off with any life, especially human life. This puts the kibosh on a certain brand of quantum philosophy, the brand that encompasses the role of the observer and the role played by probability.

Continued from Part One…

In a universe without life, it’s probably pretty meaningless to talk about concepts like free will. Then there’s that whole sackful of concepts related to good-and-evil like morals, ethics, sin, badness, righteousness, etc. and as such there’s no need for the concepts of heaven or hell. As such, scratch salvation, redemption, forgiveness, or damnation.

There are no emotions, suffering, pain, sorrow, pleasure, consciousness, or psychology. There’s obviously no disease.

There’s another bagful of concepts like the afterlife, reincarnation or resurrection that can go by the boards. Speaking of the latter, there’s no such thing in a lifeless universe as miracles. There is no such concept required like survival of the fittest; there are no wars, no death, and certainly no taxes! There were no soft science concepts around like society, culture, education (no homework), politics and government (no politicians), no economics (no bills), no religion (no thou shalt nots), no philosophy (who needs angels and pins), history (all those names, dates and places) and no environmental issues that needed addressing. There was no beauty (and no ugly either). In short, that pre-life era – that was what is known as the really good old days!

There’s one other important contrast between a lifeless universe and the universe that, in this case specifically contains and singles out humans and human concepts, and that is probability.  

Probability or uncertainty (two sides; same coin) dominates our existence. What odds my next child will be a female? What odds the next time I fly the plane will crash? What odds I win the lottery this week? What’s the probability I will be promoted this year? What’s the probability that I am normal, being of average height, weight, age, etc.? Even in science as performed by humans, probability or uncertainty dominates. Every measurement has error bars. Every forecast has some degree of uncertainty. Even the Sun rising tomorrow is not absolutely guaranteed (though I wouldn’t lose any sleep over that unlikely event). Every theory can ultimately be found to be wrong or incomplete. And just where is that damn electron anyway?

The fundamental question is, is probability an intrinsic property of Mother Nature like mass and gravity, or is it a human invention; a human concept? IMHO, there are no error bars in Mother Nature’s reality. Mother Nature knows the temperature is this, not around this but within this range. Mother Nature notes it will rain tomorrow, not just a chance of showers. Mother Nature knows that the Sun will rise tomorrow even though it will go nova the day after that. Mother Nature knew that Einstein’s theory of gravity was more precise than Newton’s theory of gravity millennia before Newton or Einstein was conceived of in anyone philosophy. And Mother Nature knows exactly where that damn electron is because the electron is. 

Any observer, via instrumentation or via the five senses, usually has to interpret what that observation actually represents – it’s not always obvious. If it was, science would have concluded its work decades ago, or just be engaged in refining things from the tenth to the twelfth decimal place. Interpretation – the choice between two or more possibilities – well that’s weighing probabilities.

* We’ve all observed a cat rubbing its head along an object. What’s the probability the cat is putting its scent on the object or the probability does it have an itch to scratch?

* We might have observed a boat passing away from us and disappearing over the horizon. Is this because the Earth is probably round or did the boat probably sink?

* In quantum physics, observations suggest a wave-particle duality. But is it more probably a wave or is it more likely a particle? 

* Is that unusual light in the sky probably an alien spaceship or is it probably a weather balloon?

* Does viewing a sunrise suggest t you that the Sun probably goes around the Earth or that the Earth probably is rotating around its axis?

* You spot that tornado on the horizon – maybe it will miss you or maybe it won’t. What are the odds? It certainly can’t both hit you and miss you at the same time and place.

* Is Pluto probably a real planet or isn’t it (and does it even cosmically matter)?

* My friend has a cold. I have a cold. Did I probably catch his or did he probably catch mine or was there probably something contagious in the meal we shared several nights ago?

* That Sasquatch I saw. Was it probably too much to drink or was it probably real and if it was real was it probably a bear or was it probably an unknown primate?

* Did the apple fall to earth because it’s probably seeking its natural place or was it probably due to an external force called gravity?

* Is Schrodinger’s cat probably dead or probably alive? It can’t be both simultaneously despite what quantum physics suggest.

* Why is the night sky dark? Is it probably because the Sun’s not shining in the sky at night or probably because the Universe is expanding or probably because there’s only a finite number of stars and galaxies giving off light.

* Why did the chicken cross the road this morning? You may not know (though you can probably come up with a half-dozen possibilities) but the chicken probably does.

There’s little doubt in my mind that to all of these probably observations there is but one answer(s). In many cases we’ve sussed out the answer(s). We don’t have the answer(s) in all the cases. I say answer(s) because there can be more than one answer acting jointly, like there really was a Sasquatch and yes, you were also really, really drunk; yes the Earth is round, but yes, the boat sank as well. But its an either/or certainty of an explanation(s), not a bit of both ways by sometimes probably having your cake and sometimes probably eating it too, probability, as in sometimes the apple falls to earth because it is seeking its natural place and sometimes it falls to earth because of gravity; or that Pluto is a planet on odd days or in months containing an “R” and not a planet on even days or non-“R” months; or sometimes the night sky is dark because the Sun isn’t in the sky, but at other times the night sky is dark because the Universe is expanding and at yet even on other occasions its only dark because there’s only a finite number of stars and galaxies.

The bottom line is that the Universe isn’t governed by probability. Given identical sets of circumstances or conditions, the outcomes remain the same. Observers and observations are irrelevant. That’s made crystal clear during all those millennia the Universe was observer-free.   

A Lifeless Universe: Part One

You know and I know that at this point in time, our Universe is inhabited. Even if nowhere else in the cosmos, Planet Earth is host to terrestrial life, from the humble bacteria through to plants, invertebrates, fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. In terms of sheer numbers of species and total biomass, microbes and insects rule the roost, though humans alone pat themselves on the back. However, the Universe didn’t start off with any life, especially human life. This puts the kibosh on a certain brand of quantum metaphysics, the brand that encompasses the role of the observer and the role played by probability.

I think everyone would agree that before they were thought of in anyone’s philosophy, the Universe existed. You’d agree that the Universe existed before humans existed, unless you’re one of those fundamentalists who interpret the Book of Genesis literally, and even then there were a few days for the Universe to enjoy a pre-human existence. If you’re not one of those extreme right wing all-things-literal Christians, then you’d go along with the Universe existing before life, any kind of life, arose on Terra Firma (or anywhere else in the cosmos for that matter). You’d also have to go along with the notion that the Universe existed before the Earth (and therefore the Sun and solar system) existed, since the parent (the Universe) has to exist before the offspring (Earth, Sun and solar system). In fact, to bring this string to its logical conclusion, the Universe existed even before our home parent galaxy, the Milky Way existed.

The origin of our Universe via that Big Bang event was roughly 13.7 billion years ago. Our own galaxy didn’t come into its own until three plus billion years post Big Bang. Planet Earth (plus Sun and solar system) came about some 4.5 billion years ago; the first stirrings of what we’d call life happened on Earth within a half a billion years of Earth’s origin event. If you want to equate life in the Universe with life on Earth (terrestrial biology is the proverbial IT), then the Universe has been lifeless for the first 9.7 billion years of its existence.

Our Universe is bio-friendly otherwise we wouldn’t be here to discuss the issue. That’s often termed the Weak Anthropic Principle. A bio-friendly Universe is a Goldilocks Universe, albeit a dangerous Goldilocks Universe with lots of places that are too hot or too cold or otherwise not quite right and not quite bio-friendly. But, any port in a storm.

But before life was thought of in anyone’s (not that there was anyone) philosophy, we’re certain that:

* Chemistry still happened.

* Stars still shined and photons still did their photon thing.

* Gravity still grabbed; Black Holes still formed.

* Radioactivity decay still proceeded.

* Neutrinos still whizzed their merry way along the cosmic byways and pathways.

* Electrons still quantum hopped from orbit to orbit giving off and absorbing energy.

* Quarks still carried on their threesome relationships inside protons and neutrons.

Okay, there clearly was a time when the cosmos was lifeless and the above were cosmic truisms. There clearly might come such a time again if Planet Earth is the proverbial IT when it comes to the life part of “life, the Universe and everything”. Humans aren’t immortal; Planet Earth isn’t immortal, and as I said earlier, the Universe can be a dangerous place. Perhaps humans don’t even need assistance from the Universe at large to bring about their extinction and the extinction of all life on Earth. If life on Earth goes kaput, then:

* Hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms, blizzards, floods and droughts will still happen on Terra Firma.

* Volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, avalanches, Ice Ages, tsunamis, meteor impacts, erosion, mountain building, and continental drift will still happen on Terra Firma.

* The tides will still ebb and flow; the Moon still waxes and wanes.

Now the $64,000 question is why is a lifeless Universe of any interest whatsoever? The answer is “observers”, or in the case of a lifeless Universe, “no observers”.

Many, especially the religious, think the Universe had a purpose, and that was to be fruitful and produce life, intelligence and consciousness, a way of the Universe being able to contemplate its own navel. That’s often termed the Strong Anthropic Principle. Most scientists give that the thumbs down on the grounds that the Universe just is. The Universe doesn’t have a consciousness, or a deity controlling it, and therefore the cosmos can’t have a purpose to its existence, nor a ways and means that it can consciously direct itself toward such a goal.

However, many quantum physicists suggest that the Universe cannot have achieved a reality until such time as observers (life) appeared to give the Universe reality. That’s often termed the Copenhagen Interpretation of quantum mechanics. The idea is that all possible realities exist in a state of superposition and only one becomes reality when someone actually observes and forces the numerous possibilities down to one certainty. All possible realities are grouped together and termed the probability wave-function or wave of probability. When crunch-comes-crunch and someone peeks, Mother Nature is forced to make a decision, the wave-function collapses and one and only one certainty results.

Until life appeared then, the Universe was in a superposition of all possible realities, a wave-function that was a composite of all possibilities. That first observer hence collapsed the wave-function of near infinite possibilities down to one reality. Or is that just so much bovine fertilizer?

Now between the time of the creation, that Big Bang event some 13.7 billion years ago, and the time of that first observer arising, the cosmos expanded and evolved. Stars formed, solar systems formed, galaxies formed, and so on. Now all that suggests that there was one reality, one chain of events, and a causality that was universal – the Universe was not in a composite of all possible states of reality even while no life existed. It’s silly to think that that ever first proto-cell billions of years ago determined the single structure or reality of the Universe we see around us today. For observers to have come into being, the Universe had to have already been in a state of being. Therefore, the Copenhagen Interpretation of all things quantum is utter nonsense.

So, does the Universe exist even if nobody is looking? Yes! Did the Universe exist even when there was nobody to look? Yes! Are observers relevant? No!

Having settled the observer question, let’s move on to the next phase.

To be continued…

UFOs: Are We Their Lucky Generation? Part Two

There are some pro-UFO ETH (extraterrestrial hypothesis) believers who state that aliens have only recently arrived on Earth in response to modern human activities, like our nuclear weapons detonations. Sceptics counter that it’s unlikely in the extreme that 1) aliens could have gotten from there to here that quickly, and 2) the odds that we current humans would just happen by chance be the lucky generation, after four and a half billion years have passed Earth by in cosmic isolation, to now experience for the very first time on-site cosmic company are astronomically against. So, are we the lucky generation to be the first graced by E.T., or not?

Continued from yesterday’s blog…

The

1947 Scenario Gives Way

To - The Once Upon A Time Scenario:

If bona-fide UFOs are extraterrestrial visitations, then it’s highly improbable that our generation would be the generation to be privy to said visitations. In all probability, such visitations should have and would have extended back into historical times, ancient times, and pre-historical times; in fact they could extend right back to when Planet Earth was just a lifeless ball of solidifying molten rock.  They – the extraterrestrials - could have taken an active role in shaping terrestrial evolution from nearly the year dot, all the while considering themselves stewards of Planet Earth.

If one accepts the idea that UFOs are extraterrestrial spaceships, and one accepts the idea that extraterrestrials have been around for quite some considerable time (‘ancient astronauts’ anyone), then one can and should extrapolate back in our planet’s history even further and postulate that they might have been around for most, if not all of our geological history. How so?

Once upon a time, nearly fourteen billion years ago, our Universe began – exact how and why is not relevant to the scenario that follows.

Shortly thereafter, in cosmic terms, now some ten billion years ago, natural physical processes like gravity produced our Milky Way Galaxy (and lots of others besides, but they don’t feature in this scenario).

Within our galaxy, in fairly short order, lots of super-massive first generation stars blew up as supernovae creating and spreading the heavy elements required for biology – oxygen, carbon, nitrogen, etc. - through interstellar space. Those heavy elements became incorporated in second generation stars, some of which in turn became supernovae, further enriching what became third generation stars, of which our Sun (Sol) is but one of many.

By the time our own third generation star, Sol, formed with accompanying solar system and it’s third rock from the star (Planet Earth), four and a half billion years ago, our Milky Way Galaxy was already five and a half billion years old, yielding more than enough time to have generated extraterrestrial life, extraterrestrial intelligence, and extraterrestrial intelligences with advanced technologies capable of subluminal interstellar space travel.  

My basic premise therefore is that at least one, probably many, extraterrestrial civilizations have boldly gone and voyaged out into interstellar space even before our own star, solar system, and home planet ever existed, and that trend continues.

The time it takes to explore all our galaxy’s nooks-and-crannies would be a tiny fraction of the age of our galaxy. Translated, Planet Earth would have been charted billions of years ago.

That being the case, it’s logical to assume that there is at least one advanced and adventurous interstellar venturing extraterrestrial civilization currently in our here and now; probably one or more from in we include our historical past and probably hundreds extending throughout our prehistory; even more throughout the lengthy eons of our geological history,  four and a half billion years worth - translated, no matter how you slice and dice it, we (i.e. – Planet Earth) have received multi-thousands of visitations over our four and a half billion years of existence.

Based on speculative calculations by scientists interested in extraterrestrial life, ballpark numbers suggest that Sol, our solar system and Planet Earth should have received or expected, on average, a random visitation by advanced boldly going extraterrestrials every one hundred thousand years (so suggests astronomer Carl Sagan) to an even greater once in every ten thousand years (according to physicist Edward Condon).

Even varying the random frequency visitations downwards by even one or two orders of magnitude still translates into a lot of visits by an E.T. over our four and a half billion years. This not only satisfies the Fermi Paradox (“where is everybody?”),  but all those critics that point out that our first alien visitation was unlikely in the extreme to be in 1947, the start of the modern UFO era.

It doesn’t take much imagination – and many have imagined it – that E.T. has been flitting around Earth’s neighborhood on a nearly ongoing basis since the year dot. The key point is once that initial chance discovery happened, and that could have been billions of years ago, we were noted and logged as biological real estate. We’re now a colored pin in the galactic map, say green for simple biosphere; yellow for complex life, orange for intelligence and red for here be a civilization. Within one hundred thousand years of that first contact discovery (even if it were just E.T. greeting our microbial ancestors), radio communications at light speed would have informed all potentially receptive (and future receptive) extraterrestrial civilizations that here was one of those rare abodes, a planet with a biosphere, and thus one worthy of ongoing (not random) investigations – to satisfy their alien scientific curiosity if nothing else.

Our own terrestrial parallels are obvious. Once we discovered Antarctica it quickly became common knowledge. We went back, again, and again, finally setting up quasi- permanent quarters despite the obvious costs to the taxpayer and hardships to those undertaking the journey, and all in the name of science. We’ll go back to the Moon too one day – maybe not anytime real soon, but sometime. Your great grandkids will see lunar settlements or outposts like we see in Antarctica today. E.T. and Earth may have had the same ongoing relationship as humans and Antarctica. We might find we have E.T. for company on the Moon like we’ve had E.T. as sticky-beaks hovering around Earth in their UFOs.

Now recall from our mythologies around the world from all races, all cultures, all geographical settlements the tales of the sky ‘gods’ and other deities or beings associated with various constellations and stellar addresses.  Those same ‘gods’ (or ‘ancient astronauts’), who often get around in aerial or fiery ‘chariots’, gave the gifts of culture and knowledge and rudimentary technologies to primitive (hunter-gatherer) mankind. They of course stick around to monitor their experiments on their subjects.

So why don’t we have a clearer picture of these ‘ancient astronauts’ instead of having to try to come to terms with vague mythologies which is anything but crystal clear on that subject. That’s because our oral traditions (language) has existed vastly longer than our written record. Thus, there’s a long oral tradition of the ancient astronaut ‘gods’ and their relationships with humans and with each other before it all started to be written down, since language proper first came to the fore less than one hundred thousand years ago (probably less – more like fifty thousand years ago with the development of full behavioural modernity) but writing can only be traced back to roughly 6000 BC. That’s a lot of in-between time for a lot of the details to have been embellished or lost and lost too in the retellings over some two thousand human generations! Still, mythologies provide a lot of evidence that the extraterrestrial and the terrestrial have interacted.

Now fast-forward to 1947 and through to the present early 21^st Century. The ‘gods’ or the ‘ancient astronauts’ have become the aliens or the grays or E.T., and they are going to keep close tabs on us, since they know that one day, even if thousands of years down the track, we’ll boldly go too like they have boldly gone. We have our intelligence gathering agencies keeping tabs on those we need to keep tabs on; E.T. has theirs as well, keeping tabs on us.

Thus, we note that random, hence ongoing, visitations by E.T. have had absolutely nothing to do with the existence of humans and human technology, like our nuclear weapons detonations as well as our radio and radar and TV signals that are expanding throughout (to date very nearby) interstellar space that could be in theory detected by aliens at home. They didn’t need to detect them at home; they were here all along and well before humans were thought of as a fun thing to create in their philosophy.

UFOs: Are We Their Lucky Generation? Part One

There are some pro-UFO ETH (extraterrestrial hypothesis) believers who state that aliens have only recently arrived on Earth in response to modern human activities, like our nuclear weapons detonations. Sceptics counter that it’s unlikely in the extreme that 1) aliens could have gotten from there to here that quickly, and 2) the odds that we current humans would just happen by chance be the lucky generation, after four and a half billion years have passed Earth by in cosmic isolation, to now experience for the very first time on-site cosmic company are astronomically against. So, are we the lucky generation to be the first graced by E.T., or not?

It’s only in the last couple of generations that humans have had the ability to answer the question “are we alone?” Prior to the building of radio telescopes and the launching of space probes, that question rested more with philosophy and speculative science (often sci-fi) than hardcore science. So it would be coincidence beyond belief that E.T. would pop in for a visit within just those last couple of human generations that enabled us to finally search for him (or it) out there. 

If you were to throw a dart randomly at four and a half billion balloons, each balloon labeled with one year since Planet Earth came into existence (starting with one and ending up with number four and a half billion), what odds that the dart would hit any of those balloons that had dates that coincided with humanity’s time on Planet Earth, even being generous and giving us (humanity) an existence of say two million balloon years, far less hitting the one balloon that we would call 1947 (the accepted start of the modern UFO era)? Bugger all odds against! But does that of necessity negate the UFO ETH?

Aliens Are Here Because We Are Here Scenario - Otherwise Known As The 1947 UFO Scenario:

UFOs, if alien owned and operated, can only be here on (or above) Earth, in response to the on-site presence of the modern technological human. That’s actually advocated by many pro-UFO extraterrestrial hypothesis (ETH) buffs. They ask can be a coincidence that aliens have arrived here just at the same time we started playing around with dangerous toys like nuclear weapons; trespassing on their turf by going into space; and illustrating our overall stupidity by reeking environmental havoc upon ourselves.

Now the ‘aliens are here because we are here’ argument for extraterrestrial UFOs is IMHO actually the best anti-UFO ETH arguments going. Skeptics counter that for mankind to be ‘visible’ to those out there; those out there can only know about us, our ‘visibility’, via our electromagnetic (EM) signals, which propagate outwards into the cosmos at light speed. Our EM signals (optical nuclear blasts, radio/TV broadcasts, radar emissions, etc.) haven’t had much time to get very far out into the cosmos, because prior to say 1900 Earth was pretty damn quiet in terms of giving off human technological EM noise. Even our atmospheric pollution, potentially detectable from way out there via spectroscopic analysis, wasn’t really at highly abnormal levels prior to 1900. It’s only in the 20^th Century did our visibility really kick into high gear.

So, if you take 1947 as the start year of the modern UFO era – their arrival date – and assuming the aliens left home as soon as they detected our EM signal(s), then their home has got to be so relatively near to Earth as to be statistically unlikely in the extreme. Since E.T.’s home is certainly not within our solar system, then by elimination, that leaves the nearby stars. But only subluminal interstellar travel is possible (so proclaimed Einstein in his Special Theory of Relativity), and even interstellar velocities of say ten percent light speed are really pushing reasonable limits. Our closest stellar companions are over four light years away, so it would take E.T. over forty years to reach us from our closest stellar abode at ten percent light speed. Add to that the four light years it took our EM signal to reach them in the first place, well that’s about forty-four years all up. Subtract that from 1947 – well, 1903 isn’t known for our high intensity radio broadcasts; radar, TV and the light from our nuclear blasts were still future technology. Our city lights weren’t exactly going to be blinding their telescopes either. Therefore, according to the skeptics, E.T. didn’t arrive in 1947 due to any human activity, and since obviously only human activity would attract E.T. to travel here in the first place, therefore UFOs can not be anything alien! So say the skeptics. 

But the skeptic’s basic assumption here is that E.T. was out of range back at home. E.T. was in another extra-solar planetary hemisphere, country or city, across the gulf of interstellar space and far away from where the terrestrial action was. Alas for the skeptics, even if the aliens arrived out of concern to post-1900’s human activities (according to some UFO believers), that could mean the aliens were already here, if not on-site, then in our immediate solar system neighborhood, like having a lunar base, or even an orbiting space colony ship, say out in the asteroid belt, as base of operations. One doesn’t have to postulate them being a minimum of over four light years away (the distance to our nearest stellar neighbor).

So the basic assumption here by some pro-UFO ETH believers, that aliens arrived first in 1947 because of human activity is just so anthropomorphic (human centered) as to be laughable It’s an egocentric inspired, but just a coincidence, that alien UFOs are around when humans dominate Earth’s environment. As we’ve seen, the skeptic’s counter argument fares little better in the logic department.

But when taken to its logical conclusion, skeptics do provide the very answer which makes the UFO ETH nearly inevitable. Indeed, it would be utterly extraordinary in the extreme if that tiny niche of terrestrial time, say 1947 to the present, were the first and only niche of terrestrial time to host a visit by extraterrestrial intelligence(s).

Let’s forget the human element – as per the above argument for E.T. being here. Planet Earth has been noted and logged in a galactic database for a minimum of millions of years, more likely as not at least an order or two of magnitude greater – say billions of years.

The obvious answer is that there have been previous niches within terrestrial time, intervals of time, probably lots and lots of them, when E.T. paid a visit. E.T. has had billions of years to randomly (or selectively) explore our galaxy. At ten percent light speed the galaxy can be explored, even colonized in one million years. At one percent light speed it only takes ten million years to cross the galaxy edge-to-edge. Only ten million years? You might think that’s a hell of a long time, but the galaxy is ten billion years old. If there are lots of space-faring extraterrestrial civilizations, or even if there is just one, they are probably a lot closer to us than the worst case scenario of edge-to-edge, obviously, since we’re not situated on the galactic edge, we’re more like two-thirds the way out from the galactic centre.

Those who have pondered this issue and crunched the numbers, suggest that every ten thousand to one hundred thousand years is a rough guesstimate of intervals of time between random visits from E.T. 1947-to-date could easily and probably would fall outside that range. Maybe the last random visit was nine thousand years ago, or ninety thousand years ago. We’d still have a bit of a wait (one thousand to ten thousand years worth of wait) for the next call. But, and there’s always a “but”…

To be continued...

UFOs: Since They Can’t Be, Therefore They Aren’t: Part Two

UFO skeptics, that is those scientists who are skeptical against the position that some hardcore bona fide UFOs are serious indications of the existence of an advanced civilization of extraterrestrial beings, and unable to put a dent into any other pro-UFO position, go to their final fallback objection which is that the UFO extraterrestrial hypothesis (ETH) can’t be, therefore it isn’t; alright it might be but it still isn’t; don’t bother me with any facts to the contrary, my mind is absolutely made up; and in any event UFOs are just pseudoscience and I only deal with real science. Please trust me on this for I’m a scientist! And we all know scientists are 100% rational and right 100% of the time!

Continued from yesterday’s blog…

Now let’s look at some current commonly accepted notions by scientists that they consider impossible or wildly improbable, but which, in IMHO are ultimately flawed concepts, as per the above examples, they have – flawed to the point where I suggest these scientist’s ‘impossibilities or implausibility’s’ range from an actual near certainty to only somewhat implausible.

As per the point of this essay, the UFO ETH (extraterrestrial hypothesis) immediately comes to mind, as well as that closely related concept, the ‘ancient astronauts’ (the UFO ETH and associated subject ‘ancient astronauts’ are really two fraternal twins). Why? The answer is twofold. Firstly, there is the ‘Fermi Paradox’ (“where is everybody?”) issue; that’s the theoretical argument that underpins the two. Secondly, there is much observational, mythological and archaeological evidence supporting both. Considering each in turn…

Theoretical Underpinnings: I’d like to think that Planet Earth would be among the cosmic real estate of some interest to any advanced technological species of extraterrestrial being, especially since the Cambrian Explosion over 500 million years ago when complex (multi-cellular) life forms became noticeable. Like the Star Trek mantra says, “to seek out new life…”

Now in terms of galactic or interstellar real estate, comets and asteroids are pretty common. That equally applies to airless rocky worlds. Gas giants (like Jupiter and Saturn) seem to be dime-a-dozen based on discoveries of extra-solar planets, but planetary real estate that has an atmosphere, a hydrosphere, a lithosphere, and a biosphere aren’t exactly your everyday dime-a-dozen celestial bodies. So, when one such abode is detected on an extraterrestrial’s ‘radar’, either through personal or robotically ‘boldly going’, or via at a distance remote sensing (for example our oxygen rich atmosphere is an obvious giveaway that just screams out as something that should be singled out for extra attention), well, that’s us! We have a biosphere. We have life. Well, that’s interesting.

Of course for most of our biosphere’s existence, we’ve been interesting in the same way that an ant hill is interesting to an entomologist or a bacterium is interesting to a microbiologist. Just like it doesn’t take all that much effort for an entomologist to seek out an ant hill or a microbiologist to find a microbe, so, in the cosmic scheme of things, it doesn’t take all that much effort for an alien technological civilization to reach us. Many might dispute that statement, but the fact is, going from point A in our galaxy, to point B in our galaxy, violates no known laws or principles of physics. Once they have the desire and the ways and means of ‘boldly going’, the rest are mere technical details. And Planet Earth can no more hide from exploring alien eyes than an ant hill can hide from an inquisitive entomologist! Now you take local A, somewhere in our galaxy, home to an alien civilization. Now take place B – Planet Earth. What’s the distance between the two? It doesn’t matter. If the civilization can achieve 1% to 10% light speed interstellar travel – no violation of physics in that – calculate how long it would take them to get from A to B. Now, compare that with the overall age of our galaxy! You’ll find the ratio is somewhere in the same ballpark as how long it took humans to migrate, explore and colonize Planet Earth!

Observational Evidence: Well, for starters, regarding UFOs (as extraterrestrial vehicles), how about over six decades on, hundreds of thousands of sightings in all countries of the globe, by all walks of life - male & female; rich & poor; professional & illiterate; the young and the elderly, all religions; all races; all nationalities; no category has been left out. Then how about witnesses, passing lie detector exams all the while insisting “I know what I saw”? Then how about the fact that there are those experts in aerial phenomena who should be able to, but can’t explain all the sightings – the usual unexplained residue being between 5% and 10% - the hardcore, bona-fide UFOs. Now throw in multiple and independent witness accounts! You don’t care for eyewitness testimony? Too unreliable you say? Well, chuck in a pot-full of unexplained photographic and motion pictures, lots of unexplainable radar returns, ground traces, and all manner of other bits and pieces that instrumentation has detected or can do analysis on – no human brain entered into, just iron and silicon.  Also, you have the undisputed fact that many countries have undertaken official investigations into the UFO issue – that in itself suggests that the issue has been taken seriously at the highest levels, unlike say, ghosts, astrology or stigmata!

Ancient astronauts are a slightly murkier kettle-of-fish because of the massive separation in time between when the polytheistic ‘gods’ ruled and now. Its way easier to come to terms with what’s been happening over the past 60 year’s vis-à-vis 6000 years ago. Still, I’d maintain that there exists a reasonable amount of artistic and literary remnants from those long ago and far away cultures that are suggestive of otherworldly influences. For example, nearly every civilization has a mythology of legends if you will of ‘sky beings’ who obviously, in most cases at least, were considered some sort of ‘gods’, but ‘gods’ that were in reality, far beyond their comprehension, and thus really extraterrestrials. Since nobody in our more modern sophisticated age actually believes in supernatural deities; that leaves the pigeonholes of human imagination or aliens as being those ‘sky beings’. 

When it comes to mythology, my basic premise is that anytime you have near universal themes between wildly dispersed in space and/or time cultures, ethnic groups, nationalities, whatever, then you sit up and take notice that something more than just human imagination is at work.

Now, is all of that super-ultra hardcore proof? No it isn’t! Is all of that real hardcore evidence? Yes it is! It’s the sort of evidence that’s lacking in most of the other paranormal/supernatural/pseudoscience bits and pieces that the sceptics love to collectively debunk and rubbish. But, that evidence makes my assertion that some paranormal claims are more equal than other paranormal claims more credible.

In conclusion, I note that it is very interesting that for each and every anti-UFO ETH argument, there’s an equal and opposite pro-UFO ETH argument. After six plus decades, the debate is still finely balanced. That in itself is a pro-UFO ETH observation, because if the ‘can’t be, therefore it isn’t’ observation were so compelling, the interest in the UFO ETH would have dried up decades ago.

UFOs: Since They Can’t Be, Therefore They Aren’t: Part One

UFO skeptics, that is those scientists who are skeptical against the position that some hardcore bona fide UFOs are serious indications of the existence of an advanced civilization of extraterrestrial beings, and unable to put a dent into any other pro-UFO position, go to their final fallback objection which is that the UFO extraterrestrial hypothesis (ETH) can’t be, therefore it isn’t; alright it might be but it still isn’t; don’t bother me with any facts to the contrary, my mind is absolutely made up; and in any event UFOs are just pseudoscience and I only deal with real science. Please trust me on this for I’m a scientist! And we all know scientists are 100% rational and right 100% of the time!

Now one of the more famous literary quotes comes from George Orwell’s novel, “Animal Farm”. The relevant quotation goes something along this line: “All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others”.

I suggest, that in terms of all things lumped together as ‘paranormal’ or the equivalent term ‘pseudoscience’, “All things paranormal are equal, but some paranormal things are more equal than others”.

I’ve come to the conclusion that all things sceptical, all those sceptical quasi-scientific organizations like the ‘CSI: Committee for Sceptical Inquiry’ and equivalents around the world like the ‘Australian Sceptics’ organization, all those self-proclaimed scientific sceptics, seems to me to just lump all things paranormal or pseudoscientific into one great melting pot where all those paranormal ingredients are equal, and equally yucky, and equally non-credible and equally preposterous. But are they? To that I say hogwash! - Hence my paraphrasing of the famous “Animal Farm” quotation.

Now I’d be the first to agree that there’s a hell of a lot of paranormal or pseudoscientific claptrap out there. Astrology is bunk; ditto such concepts as the ‘Mars Effect’; numerology;  ESP (extrasensory perception); telepathy; clairvoyance; reincarnation (remembering past lives); communication with the ‘spirit world’; talking to your plants; prayer & prayers answered - the power of prayer; magic; psychic surgery; telekinesis; teleportation; ley lines and mystical energy grids associated with megaliths, monuments, etc.; religious and/or medical miracles: weeping statues, stigmata, Biblical codes, prophecy, and precognition; sightings of elves, fairies, the ‘wee folk’, leprechauns, angels, witches, goblins, demons, nymphs, bogeymen, etc. ghosts, spirits, poltergeist, phantoms, etc.; and associated haunted houses; ghost ships; etc. 

However, not all of the paranormal can be confined to the rubbish bin quite so easily. UFOs aside, there’s some credibility for cryptozoology – lake and sea serpents; unknown ape-like creatures (Yeti, Bigfoot, etc.); alternative medicines and medical therapies; crop circles having a non-human origin; ball lightning; transient lunar phenomena (TLP);  mysterious falls of frogs or fish or ice or other unusual objects from out of a clear blue sky; fire-walking; and spontaneous human combustion.

In “Through the Looking-Glass” it’s stated that it’s possible to believe in six impossible things before breakfast. Science and associated philosophies have had to deal with impossibilities and wildly improbable things, some of which are straight forward, and some of which aren’t – perhaps to the point where something possible is in fact impossible and fundamentally wrong. Conversely, something considered impossible might in fact be possible and fundamentally right. 

A cautionary note: when it comes to what’s possible or impossible; plausible or implausible; probable or improbable, majority doesn’t rule. Science isn’t a democracy. If a billion people believe nonsense, it’s still nonsense. This however is in contrast to what has been proven beyond a reasonable scientific doubt. If a billion people continue to disbelieve something that has been proved, say Darwinian evolution, then it’s those billion people who are full of nonsense, not the idea.

Time and time again the self-correcting nature of scientific investigation has invalidated the normal status quo of the day, resulting in a paradigm shift. Often the seemingly impossible has proved to be possible, even inevitable. Sometimes what’s been believed to be obviously plausible as proved to be anything but plausible. So, if today’s science says something’s impossible – well, maybe. If I say something is impossible – the same caveat applies. I tend to argue from common sense logic, which, as any philosopher or historian of science will tell you is no sure pathway to what is, and isn’t.

Okay, the UFO extraterrestrial hypothesis is considered by most serious and therefore rational scientists to be just pseudoscience, and believers in the UFO ETH are therefore pseudo-scientists, only lacking the job description identified with being a bona fide scientist.

When it comes to pseudoscience, once upon a time Galileo Galilei and Nicolaus Copernicus would have been considered pseudo-astronomers; Heinrich Schliemann (of Troy fame) someone who dabbled in pseudo-archaeology; Charles Darwin was a pseudo-naturalist; and Alfred Wegener, obviously put forth a theory (continental drift) that could only be described as pseudo-geology at the time. Even originally Albert Einstein was so far out in left field that his scientific seniors and superiors could easily have described his physics as pseudo-physics. Only time and history will be the judge whether or not the UFO ETH is pseudoscience or real science. The jury IMHO is still out on that issue.

I’ll just list a few once-upon-a-time scientific impossibilities that have proved to be anything but impossibilities; here are some further examples of what some might call an equivalent of the pseudo UFO ETH but under another guise.

*It used to be quite obvious that the Sun went around the Earth – any other configuration was considered against the acceptable grain.

*Once upon a time, our Universe couldn’t’ be static – It was neither expanding nor contracting. Albert Einstein however knew our Universe should be contracting because of the pulling force of gravity. To counter that, and keep the static Universe he and the scientists of the times believed in, he invented his ‘cosmological constant’, a repulsive force to exactly counter gravity’s attractive force. He later considered that his greatest scientific blunder. However, that ‘cosmological constant’ has resurfaced in the form of ‘dark energy’, a sort of antigravity, so Einstein might have been right after all!

*Black Holes, while existing theoretically on paper according to Einstein’s General Theory of Relativity, could not exist in real reality - in real reality, they were quite the impossible object.

*No one pre-Darwin (even often post-Darwin) would in their right mind consider the possibility that it was possible for mankind to have had any actual evolutionary relationship with ‘lower’ life forms, most noticeable being the primates.

*For a very long time the notion that matter actually consisted of tiny undividable bits called atoms – well that atomic theory was obviously pure nonsense.

*That ‘island universes’ were actually independent conglomerations of stars, what well call today galaxies, and not nebulous conglomerations that formed part of our own Milky Way Galaxy was deemed at best improbable if not downright impossible by astronomy’s experts.

*Catastrophism in physical geology was considered a no-no for much of the time since it began as a legit part of earth science. All geology (especially landforms) could be explained as a gradual softly-softly, slowly-slowly, process. Violent events need not apply to explain things. Tell that to the dinosaurs! Of course we know better today. Catastrophism has taken its place and role playing in the geologic scheme of things.

*Speaking of physical geology, the idea that continents could drift around the globe was considered preposterous. How dare a meteorologist (Alfred Wegener in 1912) tell geologists what should have been bleeding obvious based on cartography! Geologists of course countered that there were no plausible physical mechanisms that could push the continents around. Well, there was such a mechanism as it turned out, only we may no longer call it ‘continental drift’ but rather plate tectonics. So, the meteorologist caught the geologists flatfooted after all. 

*Once upon a time, the concept of atomic energy was pie in the sky. It was  a subject no serious physicist would take at all seriously.

*Prior to its initial detonation, there were ‘experts in explosives’ who said that the atomic bomb could never work.

*Energy-powered airflight was once considered absolutely impossible – hot-air balloons were the only feasible means of air travel, and even they were a bit suss.

*Rocket travel Buck Rogers/Flash Gordon style was utter bilge given that there was nothing in outer space for their rocket exhaust to push against.

*It was near impossible for the human body to survive any velocities faster than the speed of a horseless carriage, or a horse for that matter, without suffering fatal anatomical consequences. However, the iron horse soon put the lie to that belief.

*The sound barrier could never be broken; to claim otherwise was to disgrace your scientific kudos in aerodynamics. 

*It was once upon a time considered utterly impossible for rocks to fall from the sky; any witnesses to the contrary are damned. We now somewhat incorrectly call them ‘shooting stars’; more correctly meteors, and when then hit the ground, meteorites. 

*The “RMS Titanic” was absolutely ‘unsinkable’; everyone and their grandmother knew that God himself couldn’t sink that ship!

*The city of Troy in Homer’s “Iliad” was pure mythology. There was no such place in reality until such time as amateur pseudo-archaeologist Heinrich Schliemann found Troy based on information in, Homer’s “Iliad”.   

To be continued...

UFOs: If 19 Out of 20, Therefore 20 Out of 20!

The fact is, as most UFO sceptics readily acknowledge, between 5 and 10 percent of all reported UFO incidents remain unidentified after investigation by those qualified to do so. This fact apparently excites the scientific, astrobiology, and SETI communities not one jot. Now I would maintain that a 5 to 10% level of hardcore UFO unknowns, over six decades on, worldwide, is a major scientific anomaly. It amounts to at least several thousand unexplained UFO incidents. I was under the impression that it was the role and duty of scientists to research the unknown, but apparently not when it comes to this subject.

On the 26^th and 27^th of December 1969, the American Association for the Advancement of Science held a symposium on UFOs. The papers were edited by Carl Sagan and Thorton Page and published by Cornell University Press. One of the contributors was the late James E. McDonald*, an atmospheric physicist at the University of Arizona. McDonald’s basic theme was to send a rocket up the proverbial butts of the overall scientific community for their near neglect of what he (and many laypeople) consider to be one of the top scientific anomalies of the 20^th Century (and now of the 21^st as well) – Unidentified Flying Objects.

Unfortunately, Dr. McDonald must surely be turning over in his grave because nothing has really changed since he presented that paper. Scientists and UFOs tend to party together in much the same way as oil and water mix.

Now any scientist with an open mind, albeit even a skeptical mind, has to acknowledge that between five and ten percent of all UFO reports remain bona fide UFO reports after investigation and analysis by those qualified to do so. Let’s make life simple and say the bona fide UFO unknown rate is 5% (or 19 out of 20). Let’s call these the hardcore UFOs – the residue that has been sifted out from the larger picture. Now is the hardcore UFO glass 95% empty and evaporating (if 19 out of 20 of UFOs are explainable, then 20 out of 20 are) or is the hardcore UFO glass 5% full (if 19 out of 20 are explainable, then it’s just 19 out of 20 that’s been explained, full stop)?

One of the main scientific arguments against UFOs being of any scientific interest is that if the substantial majority of UFO reports can be adequately explained (95%) then surely all could be if there was only sufficient information. Well, the USAF (as a typical government agency that was responsible for solving UFO sightings) had a category for ‘insufficient information’, as well as ‘possible’ this or ‘probable’ that. They also had a separate and apart category for ‘unknowns’. That is to say, they had sufficient information regarding a UFO sighting but hadn’t a clue as to what the object(s) were. That’s why they were tagged as ‘unknowns’. And that amounted to roughly five percent of all UFO sightings.

Okay, 19 out of 20 UFO reports prove to have prosaic explanations. Therefore the twentieth one has one as well. Sorry, the logic just isn’t there. The first and most obvious argument is that the 20^th UFO sighting has been singled out as being different because it is different. It’s like having one green apple in a basket of 19 red apples. If all you see on the surface are red apples, that don’t mean there’s not a green apple buried below, yet that’s what those who should know better conclude. Yet in reality you can’t conclude anything about the color of the apples out of sight in the apple basket until such time as you investigate and examine the color of all the apples present.

Other examples where 19 out of 20 don’t equate of necessity to 20 out of 20: If you recover from the flu nineteen times in a row, that doesn’t mean you’ll recover the twentieth time. If the N.Y. Yankees will nineteen baseball games in a row, that doesn’t mean they’ll win number twenty. If you toss a coin and it lands heads nineteen times in a row, that’s no reason to believe the twentieth toss will be heads. Taking an example from real science, if 193 species of primates have fur, surely the 194^th will have fur too. Alas, we’re the 194^th – “The Naked Ape”.

Here’s a bit of an experiment that helps demonstrate that the 20^th case can be the odd one out. Say you want to find out if relatively nonporous solid objects sink in fresh water. So you have a large bucket of fresh water, and into that bucket you toss an ordinary coin; a lump of glass; a lump of coal; a rock; a plastic comb; a brick; a lump of gold; a diamond; a china plate; a ball bearing; some copper wire; a piece of bone; a bit of cloth; a bowling ball; a CD; some lead shot; an aluminum ingot; a large salt crystal and a clam shell. That’s 19 items – they all sink, therefore you conclude that the next solid item you toss in will also sink – an ice cube. Oops; it’s back to the drawing board.

Of course the reluctance of scientists to come to terms with the bona fide UFO hardcore is really an issue central to the sociology of science. In particular, the negative findings of the University of Colorado (Condon Committee) report (1968) have been cited as a decisive factor in the generally low level of interest in UFO activity among academics since that time. That’s despite the fact that that report couldn’t adequately explain 30% of the UFO cases it investigated. Despite that historical anomaly, UFOs for better or worse acquaint to aliens and the ETH (extraterrestrial hypothesis). There’s something about aliens that translates into little green (or gray) men, fodder for the tabloids that has an overall aura as a ‘silly season’ filler when there’s no real news around. That’s not the sort of fodder scientists like to feed on.

But these UFO unknowns don’t have to be of necessity something that equates to alien intelligence therefore the UFO ETH.

Okay, maybe the hardcore UFOs are time travellers from our future – that’s one alternative. But then hardcore UFO unknowns aren’t clustered around significant historical events that would be must sees – the bread-and-butter of that time travel industry – to tourists and historians from our future.

An early UFO ETH theory was that UFOs were actual living but non-intelligent organisms that lived in outer space but now and again would dip into our atmosphere. No biologist could actually explain how such creatures could survive, far less thrive, in the harsh conditions of outer space. So, fluffy critters from outer space without benefit of a spaceship aren’t a likely option.

Some suggest that the hardcore represent some sort of totally new natural phenomena, except there’s no even theoretical underpinning for new natural phenomena, and after six decades, well that’s a total failure to come to terms with an easy way out of the hardcore mess. However, natural phenomena wouldn’t exhibit intelligent behaviour in any event, which the hardcore UFOs do. That’s why they often tend to be the hardcore. Yet, still there’s this observation about one UFO case studied by the University of Colorado under government contract to the USAF, headed by Dr. Edward Condon. The Condon Report, as it became known had this to say: “…this unusual sighting should therefore be assigned to the category of some almost certainly natural phenomenon, which is so rare that it apparently has never been reported before or since.” You’d think that would whet the appetite of any scientist eager to make a major discovery that leads to the road to Stockholm (and a Nobel Prize). Apparently that’s just not the case. Hardcore UFO sightings, even as an apparent natural phenomenon are taboo.

Regardless, ET, space critters, time travellers, unknown natural phenomena, whatever, scientists cannot claim the hardcore UFO issue settled while those unknowns remain. They are derelict in their duty by ignoring them, hoping they’ll just ‘go away’. It’s not good enough for scientists to say ‘if 19 out of 20, therefore 20 out of 20, and go on their merry way washing their hands of the otherwise reality that that logic is faulty. They need to prove that assertion, not ignore it. Translated, they’ve got to put up or shut up. 

Some might claim that it’s the alleged nature of the unknowns as claimed by the believers that puts the onus on them to prove their case. That would be so if they claimed the hardcore UFO unknowns were proof that UFOs were piloted by ET. However, while a few sprout that line (and if they do they should put up or shut up), a majority of pro-UFO people, believers if you will, just point to the unknowns as evidence (not proof – evidence and proof are two different things) that supports the UFO ETH. Unfortunately, if the UFO ETH is really true, proof of that tends to be out of the hands of the believers since if ET doesn’t want to be caught out, he/she/it won’t be – that’s the advantage of having advanced intelligence. You outsmart lesser intelligence. So the lesser intelligence needs the cooperation (or an unintended slipup – Roswell?) of the greater alien intelligence, and we’re not getting it. Of course if there is really no ET associated with the hardcore UFO residue, then that explains that. 

But nearly all UFO believers just really believe that there’s a case to be answered for that lone 20^th hardcore UFO event, regardless of what the explanation turns out to be. And the best people to find out that explanation(s) are scientists, yet scientists ignore the challenge as they did in Dr. McDonald’s day; as they continue to do well into the 21^st Century. 

*McDonald, James E.; Science in default: twenty-two years of inadequate UFO investigations; (in) Page, Thornton & Sagan, Carl (Editors); UFO’s: A Scientific Debate; Cornell University Press, Ithaca, New York; 1972; pages 52-122.